Monday, 24 March 2014
Being in Canada I was thinking about a year ago how to hedge my Canadian dollars.. I moved about 40% of my CDN equities into US equities... so far so good.. I expect to see the Loonie @ .85ish before stabilizing... and if we cannot ship our energy anywhere but south at a steep discount.. and even that destination is constricted.. expect the loonie closer to .80USD
Gold to continue its melt after Putin Bump extends dead cat bounce ?
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| Gold death cross on the horizon ? |
Sunday, 23 March 2014
Friday, 21 March 2014
Another thought I just had wrt insurance and world events (probably temporary situations)
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| Sun Life |
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| Manulife |
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| Great West LIfe |
GWF.TO:MFC.TO so Great Life vs Manulife ratio..
SLF, MFC and charts pretty well interchangeable..
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| Great West Life vs Manulife |
so watching last chart and GWO chart... Great West buy opty coming up, or here already ?? :O)
Insurance co's in position to possible start increasing divies... Great Life right now over 4% :o)
IFC just got a plug on BNN... (and Couche Tarde for same reason plus EU exposure)
Thoughts for today :O)...
- is Putin stopping @ Crimea... Listening to Obama rhetoric.. he has conceded Crimea...(ie. how crazy is he :O)
- Natural gas may have bottomed.. hot summer combined with extant drilling slowdowns would cause another run... so some summer fun possible..
- gold can pop.... ?? depends on Vlad LOL
- Canadian Lifecos
other things but those stand out...
Thursday, 20 March 2014
Canadian heavy oil making steady comeback ... Differential improving... as transport opens up.. US refineries need heavy oil... That is why gasoline prices are high... Glut of light oil and condensate caused by transport (look at Bakken) BUT ALSO lack of light oil refining capacity... Stay tuned..
I am OVERWEIGHT BTE.T and thinking MEG.T... but I like the big yield.. hence BTE...
Big boys maybe OK SU (Capex issues ?... CNQ similar ?) Not sure they have best upside....
Also overweight CUS Canexus) They have faltered on delays and cost overruns for unit train terminals (unit train ... a train hauling one good to one place... like a transport truck usually does. Trains more like LTL typically... (Less than truck load) ie Less than trainload...
I am OVERWEIGHT BTE.T and thinking MEG.T... but I like the big yield.. hence BTE...
Big boys maybe OK SU (Capex issues ?... CNQ similar ?) Not sure they have best upside....
Also overweight CUS Canexus) They have faltered on delays and cost overruns for unit train terminals (unit train ... a train hauling one good to one place... like a transport truck usually does. Trains more like LTL typically... (Less than truck load) ie Less than trainload...
Trades posted on Twitter ... was late with these two from yesterday..
#stocks.. Sorry I missed posting two buys.. NTL as New #Bowflex product on horizon. EXAS non invasive colorectal cancer preliminary test.
Bernard Wong 黃天民
also small position in RDX.V... these guys finally got it.. looking to add lots... Will be nice to see the gap close first .... so I can add shares CHEAP :O)
Wednesday, 19 March 2014
Oh Poloz!!
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/03/18/bank-of-canadas-stephen-poloz-warns-canada-and-the-world-should-get-used-to-slower-growth/
Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz warns Canada and the world should get used to slower growth
Ian Waldie/Bloomberg
“The global economy may not be just
suffering through a hangover from the financial crisis. There are other,
longer-term forces at work as well," Poloz said.
OTTAWA
— Canada’s economy may lack some of the oomph that policymakers were
relying on this year, as extreme weather dampened output, and lingering
post-recession uncertainty over global growth hasn’t helped.
But
don’t blame the weather for all of that, says the governor of the Bank
of Canada. The “hangover” from the recession and the impact of Baby
Boomers — retiring and holding tight to their money — are also playing a
part.
Stephen Poloz, speaking to the Halifax Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday, said we have “been in recovery since 2009 — for four years — yet economic growth still pales compared to the pre-crisis years. “
“Likewise, the global economy has been growing, on average, at only about two-thirds the pace of growth in the four years prior to the crisis.”
The speech was seen as dovish and the Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback following Poloz’s comments, falling 0.67 of a cent to 89.8 cents US.
Baby Boomers — representing Canada’s biggest demographic group — are retiring, or are planning for it, and are putting more money away to save for their future, Mr. Poloz said in a speech titled Redefining the Limits to Growth.
“When a large swath of the population is making similar decisions, the impact on the broader economy can be significant,” he said. “Savings that fund infrastructure and business investment are ‘being put to work,’ which can help improve productivity, while savings that go into housing are seen as contributing less to productive potential.”
Subdued growth after a crisis “can still be regarded as cyclical, in the sense that it will eventually prove to be temporary,” said Mr. Poloz, 58. “But the global economy may not be just suffering through a hangover from the financial crisis. There are other, longer-term forces at work as well.”
“The possibility of secular stagnation needs to be taken seriously,” he said.
In Canada, he said, those include growth in labour supply and productivity.
Employment growth, like our economy in general, recovered strongly after the 2008-09 recession. But in recent years, job creation has been inconsistent, with the unemployment rate still hovering around 7%.
Meanwhile, Mr. Poloz said productivity growth “fluctuates around a long-term trend, tending to be weak during recessions and the early stages of a recovery, and stronger in periods of economic expansion.”
“It follows then that the weakness in productivity growth
since the financial crisis may be a symptom of a post-crisis hangover.
Indeed, in Canada, the latest data show a pickup in productivity in the
second half of 2013, to around 2%, which is very promising.”
There was some note of optimism Tuesday for Canada’s struggling manufacturing sector, with data showing a surprise jump of 1.5% in factory sales in January — the biggest monthly increase since February 2013, and coming after a disappointing 1.5% decline in December.
Economists had expected a rise of just 0.6% in January.
Sales were up in 12 of 21 sectors tracked by Statistics Canada, with a notable increase in food and primary metals.
“Exports remained weak in January, but somehow manufacturing wasn’t, generating a ray of light to start the first quarter after an ice-storm dented finish to Q4,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets.
Canada’s GDP grew by an annualized 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2013, much better than economists had anticipated, and above the 2.5% forecast by the Bank of Canada in its most recent Monetary Policy Report released in January.
Private-sector analysts, nevertheless, expect growth in the first quarter of this year will be considerably slower than the central bank’s outlook of 2.5%.
We’ll get our first look at 2014 economic data on March 31, when Statistics Canada releases January growth numbers.
At the end of February, the federal agency issued its final GDP tally for last year, putting 2013 growth at 2%, stronger than the 1.7% the economy managed a year earlier.
As for inflation, the main focus of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy, consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 1.5% in January, up from 1.2% the previous month.
Mr. Poloz and his policy team have taken some comfort in the recent price climb into the bank’s 1%-to-3% comfort range, although still below its key target of 2%. Statistics Canada will update its CPI numbers on Friday, with February’s data.
Mr. Poloz, who took over from Mark Carney in June, has moved the central bank away from its post-recession stance that its benchmark lending rate — at 1% since September 2010 — would eventually rise, and households should avoid taking on debt that they might not be able service when borrowing costs go up.
Since October, he has emphasized a neutral stance on the next direction of the bank’s trendsetting rate, giving the still-uncertain economic growth, a lingering output gap and the below-target inflation.
“Governor Poloz didn’t say anything to shift the bank away from its neutral bias,” said Benjamin Reitzes, senior economist at BMO Capital Market.
“Indeed, he solidified the bank’s neutral stance by stating that policymakers are looking through the weather-dampened Q1 growth figures and the expected drop in CPI coming on Friday,” he said.
“The long-term implications of his comments were not surprising — lower growth and lower interest rates — with the worsening demographic profile already well known.”
But
don’t blame the weather for all of that, says the governor of the Bank
of Canada. The “hangover” from the recession and the impact of Baby
Boomers — retiring and holding tight to their money — are also playing a
part.Stephen Poloz, speaking to the Halifax Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday, said we have “been in recovery since 2009 — for four years — yet economic growth still pales compared to the pre-crisis years. “
“Likewise, the global economy has been growing, on average, at only about two-thirds the pace of growth in the four years prior to the crisis.”
The speech was seen as dovish and the Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback following Poloz’s comments, falling 0.67 of a cent to 89.8 cents US.
Baby Boomers — representing Canada’s biggest demographic group — are retiring, or are planning for it, and are putting more money away to save for their future, Mr. Poloz said in a speech titled Redefining the Limits to Growth.
“When a large swath of the population is making similar decisions, the impact on the broader economy can be significant,” he said. “Savings that fund infrastructure and business investment are ‘being put to work,’ which can help improve productivity, while savings that go into housing are seen as contributing less to productive potential.”
Subdued growth after a crisis “can still be regarded as cyclical, in the sense that it will eventually prove to be temporary,” said Mr. Poloz, 58. “But the global economy may not be just suffering through a hangover from the financial crisis. There are other, longer-term forces at work as well.”
“The possibility of secular stagnation needs to be taken seriously,” he said.
In Canada, he said, those include growth in labour supply and productivity.
Employment growth, like our economy in general, recovered strongly after the 2008-09 recession. But in recent years, job creation has been inconsistent, with the unemployment rate still hovering around 7%.
Meanwhile, Mr. Poloz said productivity growth “fluctuates around a long-term trend, tending to be weak during recessions and the early stages of a recovery, and stronger in periods of economic expansion.”
There was some note of optimism Tuesday for Canada’s struggling manufacturing sector, with data showing a surprise jump of 1.5% in factory sales in January — the biggest monthly increase since February 2013, and coming after a disappointing 1.5% decline in December.
Economists had expected a rise of just 0.6% in January.
Sales were up in 12 of 21 sectors tracked by Statistics Canada, with a notable increase in food and primary metals.
“Exports remained weak in January, but somehow manufacturing wasn’t, generating a ray of light to start the first quarter after an ice-storm dented finish to Q4,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets.
Canada’s GDP grew by an annualized 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2013, much better than economists had anticipated, and above the 2.5% forecast by the Bank of Canada in its most recent Monetary Policy Report released in January.
Private-sector analysts, nevertheless, expect growth in the first quarter of this year will be considerably slower than the central bank’s outlook of 2.5%.
We’ll get our first look at 2014 economic data on March 31, when Statistics Canada releases January growth numbers.At the end of February, the federal agency issued its final GDP tally for last year, putting 2013 growth at 2%, stronger than the 1.7% the economy managed a year earlier.
As for inflation, the main focus of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy, consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 1.5% in January, up from 1.2% the previous month.
Mr. Poloz and his policy team have taken some comfort in the recent price climb into the bank’s 1%-to-3% comfort range, although still below its key target of 2%. Statistics Canada will update its CPI numbers on Friday, with February’s data.
Mr. Poloz, who took over from Mark Carney in June, has moved the central bank away from its post-recession stance that its benchmark lending rate — at 1% since September 2010 — would eventually rise, and households should avoid taking on debt that they might not be able service when borrowing costs go up.
Since October, he has emphasized a neutral stance on the next direction of the bank’s trendsetting rate, giving the still-uncertain economic growth, a lingering output gap and the below-target inflation.
“Governor Poloz didn’t say anything to shift the bank away from its neutral bias,” said Benjamin Reitzes, senior economist at BMO Capital Market.
“Indeed, he solidified the bank’s neutral stance by stating that policymakers are looking through the weather-dampened Q1 growth figures and the expected drop in CPI coming on Friday,” he said.
“The long-term implications of his comments were not surprising — lower growth and lower interest rates — with the worsening demographic profile already well known.”
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